Andrej Karpathy Says “AGI Is Still a Decade Away”

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October 20, 2025

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🎙 Expert Insight: Andrej Karpathy Says “AGI Is Still a Decade Away”

In a recent podcast episode with Dwarkesh Patel titled “AGI is still a decade away”, Karpathy offers a clear-eyed assessment of where AI stands—and where it needs to go. Dwarkesh

🧠 Key Takeaways

  • Hype check: it’s the decade of agents, not the year.
    Karpathy argues we’re early in the “agents” era—not at an AGI finish line. He compares today’s assistants to training wheels, not fully autonomous intelligence. Dwarkesh+1

  • Reinforcement learning (RL) is overrated—even flawed.
    He calls RL “terrible,” pointing out it often rewards lucky trial-and-error rather than genuine reasoning. Dwarkesh+1

  • Language models suffer from “model collapse.”
    Karpathy highlights that LLMs can stagnate when trained on their own outputs, and they struggle compared to human learning which is more structured and contextual. Dwarkesh+1

  • AGI won’t happen overnight—it will blend into incremental growth.
    Even when transformative, Karpathy predicts AI’s impact will resemble past decades of ~2 % GDP growth rather than a singular leap. Dwarkesh+1

  • Today’s models are tools, not minds.
    Karpathy notes that most generative systems are “ghosts” mimicking data—not beings with understanding—and they still lag core human-learning mechanisms. Simon Willison’s Weblog

💡 My Take

Karpathy’s tone is one of cautious optimism. He’s deeply invested in AI but insists we recalibrate expectations. For practitioners and analysts alike:

  • Focus on augmenting human work—not replacing human thought—until the next big leap.

  • Be skeptical of claims that autonomous agents are “just around the corner.”

  • Build infrastructure, feedback loops, and methodology now, because the “next decade” is where substance will accumulate.

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AI Spotlight: Higgsfield—Transforming Static Images into Cinematic Videos

Higgsfield is an AI-powered video generation platform designed to empower creators with advanced cinematic tools. By converting static images into dynamic videos, Higgsfield offers a suite of features that bring professional-grade motion effects to users of all skill levels.

🎬 Key Features:

Extensive Motion Controls: Higgsfield provides over 50 cinematic camera movements, including dolly zooms, crash zooms, FPV drone shots, and more, allowing users to craft visually compelling narratives.

Image-to-Video Conversion: Users can upload a single image and apply motion effects to generate short videos, making it ideal for social media content, advertisements, and storytelling.

User-Friendly Interface: The platform is designed for ease of use, enabling creators without extensive technical backgrounds to produce high-quality videos.

Customizable Effects: Higgsfield offers a variety of visual effects, such as disintegration, levitation, and explosions, to enhance the creative possibilities.

💰 Pricing Plans:

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🚀 Getting Started:

Sign Up: Create an account on Higgsfield's website.

Choose a Motion Effect: Select from the extensive library of camera movements and visual effects.

Upload an Image: Provide a high-quality image to serve as the base for your video.

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📣 My Take:

Higgsfield stands out as a powerful tool for creators seeking to infuse their content with cinematic flair without the need for complex software or equipment. Its combination of user-friendly design and professional-grade effects makes it a valuable asset for marketers, storytellers, and social media influencers aiming to elevate their visual content.

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